📅 01/01/26🕒 15:00🏟️ Vicarage Road🧑⚖️ Lewis Smith, England
ScorerT. Ince3 goalsBiggest Swing+1.85 xT60' T. InceCards3
Watford 3-0 Birmingham City — xTears 11.31 (01/01/26)
Watford turned the 3-0 over Birmingham City on 1 January 2026 into a rout during Matchday 25 of EFL Championship. Total damage: 11.31 xTears.
T. Ince carried much of the damage, with the match first opening through T. Ince at 9' goal (+1.41 xT); T. Ince at 38' goal (+1.29 xT) then widened it further.
The match moved between settled phases and messy stretches. The xTears split stayed clearly tilted toward the winner. T. Ince scored a hat-trick.
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How it unfolded
Timeline
9'
Goal
1-0T. Ince - Watford
Assist: G. Chakvetadze
38'
Goal
2-0T. Ince - Watford
60'
Goal
3-0T. Ince - Watford
Assist: N. Irankunda
Absolute chaos
🧨
4.55
60'
Goal
+1.85 xT
T. Ince - Watford
Assist: N. Irankunda
9'
Goal
+1.41 xT
T. Ince - Watford
Assist: G. Chakvetadze
38'
Goal
+1.29 xT
T. Ince - Watford
All-out war
🟥
2.77
78'
Yellow card
+1.04 xT
Paik Seung-Ho - Birmingham City
63'
Yellow card
+0.99 xT
L. Dykes - Birmingham City
43'
Yellow card
+0.74 xT
M. Pollock - Watford
Late drama
🔥
Barely left a bruise
0
Nothing big fed this one.
Referee scandal
🧑⚖️
Barely left a bruise
0
Nothing big fed this one.
Cruelty
😈
Barely left a bruise
0
Nothing big fed this one.
Crushed hope
💔
Barely left a bruise
0
Nothing big fed this one.
Other pretty unhinged matches
The most unhinged matches connected to this one.
Head-to-head
EFL Championship|16 Sept 2023
Watford
2
Birmingham City
016.94
xT
Watford
EFL Championship|02 Nov 2024
Sheffield Wednesday
2Watford
622.83
xT
Birmingham City
EFL Championship|18 Oct 2025
Birmingham City
2
Hull City
322.89
xT
This season
EFL Championship|21 Feb 2026
Wrexham
5
Ipswich Town
323.27
xT
EFL Championship
EFL Championship|12 Aug 2023
Southampton
4
Norwich City
426.35
xT