Newcastle 4-3 Leeds — xTears 21.50 (07/01/26)
Newcastle came back to win 4-3 against Leeds on 7 January 2026 during Matchday 21 of the Premier League. Total damage: 21.50 xTears.
The real swing for Newcastle arrived through H. Barnes 36' goal (+1.24 xT) and Joelinton 54' goal (+1.34 xT), the sequence that changed who owned the match.
The match changed hands after the first blow, and Newcastle's comeback ended up outweighing the opening phase.
How It Unfolded
32'
Goal
B. Aaronson - Leeds
Assist: D. Calvert-Lewin
36'
Goal
H. Barnes - Newcastle
Assist: N. Woltemade
45'
Penalty
D. Calvert-Lewin - Leeds
54'
Goal
Joelinton - Newcastle
Assist: Bruno Guimarães
79'
Goal
B. Aaronson - Leeds
Assist: I. Gruev
90'
Penalty
Bruno Guimarães - Newcastle
90'
Goal
H. Barnes - Newcastle
Assist: S. Botman
Absolute chaos
15.12
90'
Goal
+2.40 xT
H. Barnes - Newcastle
Assist: S. Botman
90'
Penalty
+2.09 xT
Bruno Guimarães - Newcastle
79'
Goal
+1.96 xT
B. Aaronson - Leeds
Assist: I. Gruev
45'
Penalty
+1.77 xT
D. Calvert-Lewin - Leeds
Late drama
8.62
90'
Goal
+2.40 xT
H. Barnes - Newcastle
Assist: S. Botman
90'
Penalty
+2.09 xT
Bruno Guimarães - Newcastle
90+10'
Yellow card
+1.22 xT
E. Ampadu - Leeds
90+7'
Substitution
+0.54 xT
S. Bornauw for J. Rodon - Leeds
All-out war
4.70
90+10'
Yellow card
+1.22 xT
E. Ampadu - Leeds
45+3'
Yellow card
+0.93 xT
A. Gordon - Newcastle
45+6'
Yellow card
+0.93 xT
Joelinton - Newcastle
7'
Yellow card
+0.81 xT
M. Thiaw - Newcastle
Referee scandal
3.86
90'
Penalty
+2.09 xT
Bruno Guimarães - Newcastle
45'
Penalty
+1.77 xT
D. Calvert-Lewin - Leeds
Cruelty
2.40
90'
Goal
+2.40 xT
H. Barnes - Newcastle
Assist: S. Botman
Crushed hope
2.40
90'
Goal
+2.40 xT
H. Barnes - Newcastle
Assist: S. Botman

