Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal — xTears 16.84 (04/10/25)

Real Madrid won 3-1 against Villarreal on 4 October 2025 during Matchday 8 of La Liga, even with the xTears split tilting slightly the other way. Total damage: 16.84 xTears.

Vinícius Júnior ended up carrying the main damage for Real Madrid through Vinícius Júnior 47' goal (+1.52 xT) and then Vinícius Júnior 69' penalty (+1.84 xT).

The scoreboard and xTears did not tell exactly the same story: Real Madrid punished better without fully owning the emotional volume. The match lost its cool with 6 yellows and 1 red. S. Mouriño eventually walked for a second booking.